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Wind AlliesTier 2
at Illusive Online Webcam Regionals
decks
15
(15.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
71
28-34-9
overall winrate
45.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.5%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
45.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1338
· median 1366
· range 1104–1689
(15 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1233
Q3 1413
1689
27% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.1% | 12 | 7-4-1 | 62.5% | 59.4% | 53.4% | +1.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.1% | 11 | 3-7-1 | 31.8% | 36.7% | 45.1% | -2.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.1% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -1.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 9 | 0-6-3 | 16.7% | 26.9% | 40.0% | -4.6 |
| Water Allies | 6.1% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 48.0% | -1.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.1% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 50.4% | +0.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.1% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 51.7% | +1.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.2% | -2.7 |
| Wind Slimes | 3.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.2% | +3.9 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.5% | +1.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Fire Neos | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +4.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Water Beast | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.7 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
Decklists · 15 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Aesan Protector, Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa, Vigilant Sentry. Losers more often ran: Reclaim, Rose, Eternal Paragon, Attune with the Winds.
Aesan Protector
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Vigilant Sentry
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Inspiring Call
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Reprogram
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Prototype Pistol
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Reclaim
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Rose, Eternal Paragon
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Attune with the Winds
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Nullifying Lantern
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Scavenging Raccoon
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Verdigris Decree
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 66 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 46 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aesan Protector | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Reclaim | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Attune with the Winds | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vigilant Sentry | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Armored Valkyrie | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manufacture Cell | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Second Wind | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Vanguard | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Outlook | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Charged Mannequin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |